Tuesday, July 28, 2015

The Dumb Genius of Donald Trump



Donald Trump has brilliantly dominated the media and diverted all the attention to himself from not only the GOP but also the Democratic Party. This political provocateur has in some perverse way achieved a stunning lead in the polls due to his political incorrectness that represents the repressed personal frustrations, justified or not, of many Americans who only dare say such things privately. But Trump can because he’s rich and fearless. For that reason he’ll always have admirers.

Like financial bubbles Trump’s behavior and political campaign buffoonery to maintain such stratospheric popularity ratings in the polls and a possible GOP nomination are unsustainable. Sooner rather than later the public will grow weary and recognize it for what it is as nothing more than amusing entertainment. It is assumed that Trump’s early big lead as a front runner of this horse race will be overcome easily and that Trump’s pace will be reduced to a leisurely gallop. Though the will never admit it publicly, the GOP doesn’t really mind Trump’s antics because it’s so wild, flamboyant, and out-of-control that any other GOP candidate will seem totally rational.

But here’s the genuinely frightening part, particularly for the GOP. What if Trump doesn’t follow the historical script of the eccentric and extrovert front-runner who flames out, self-destructs and vanishes? What if he suddenly morphs into a normal and serious presidential candidate just prior to or during the upcoming August debates? In other words, Trump may have deliberately became a public relations attention grabber as part of his master plan to grab a large lead in the polls but now realizes that he’s achieved something beyond his wildest dreams as a dominant front runner.  Like a front running horse, through behavior modification he can now set and even dictate the pace making it quite difficult for the other GOP candidates to make up ground as the political campaign progresses.

Trump knows this best. It’s not just politics. It’s business. Big business. This outrageously fortuitous moment in time is when, during the debate, he can state, “Now it’s time to get serious”, fess up to his unprofessional or unorthodox behavior and loquaciously provide a well-thought out campaign program and establish a solid political platform. Like a brilliant comedic actor who now proves that he can be a serious actor with the very best of them, Trump can capture lightning in a bottle. Then it’ll be Trump who’ll have considerable leverage and can dictate his terms going forward when the presidential campaign process becomes serious about GOP nominations.

So what’s Trump’s end game? The GOP is unlikely to tolerate Trump as a presidential or even vice-presidential candidate. However, should the GOP win the presidential election, they could offer Mr. Trump a high-level governmental position. This would be yet another case of a wealthy individual in private industry securing a high-level governmental position before returning back to private industry with more influential contacts and a particular level of prestige such as public service, than if they stayed in private industry. Like any wealthy and powerful businessman, if Trump plays his cards right, he’ll not only get what he wants, he‘ll get more.

 Copyright Indo-Brazilian Associates LLC 2015.  All rights reserved.

Indo-Brazilian Associates LLC is a NYC-based global advisory service and think tank with connections at the highest levels specializing in international investment, political and security risk assessments. International business is increasingly complex featuring a highly mobile professional class in all corners of the globe. We provide you the tools to successfully negotiate cross-culturally in your global business endeavors. Tell us about your challenges.  We'll get you on the "Short List".

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