The Economist (Nov. 1, 2014) quoted Polat Kan, a Syrian Kurdish
commander, who compared the Battle of Kobani to the Battle of Stalingrad, the
infamous WW II battle that took place in 1942-43. This battle was the turning
point on the Eastern Front when the previously unstoppable German 6th
Army seemingly had captured Stalingrad before the arrival of Soviet
reinforcements and the infamous brutal Russian winter combined to destroy the
German Army in early February 1943.
Of course this battle in a small city next to the Turkish border
is more like a WW II skirmish yet there are many powerful and eerie parallels to
Stalingrad. Not long ago it seemed inevitable that Kobani would fall and that
and a resultant slaughter would follow. Yet the Kurds have held thanks to US
air attacks against ISIS positions plus furnishing supplies and intelligence
information to keep them from collapsing.
Although these reinforcements number only in the hundreds, they
bring with them heavy weapons – superior firepower - which counters ISIS
weaponry. Several weeks ago the beleaguered Kurdish fighters were literally
counting bullets for their light firearms. ISIS, who utilizes numerous foreign
fighters, now must contend with reinforced Kurdish forces and US air support. This
parallels the German 6th Army’s reliance on foreign fighters, the
reluctant Romanians, Italians and Bulgarians guarding their flanks, and the
Russian winter which severely hampered operations.
With respect to the bigger picture, during the same period on the
Eastern Front the Germans reached as far as the suburbs of Moscow, the Russian capital.
Similarly ISIS is near Anbar which is within striking distance of Baghdad, the
Iraqi capital. The Germans never took Moscow after their defeat at Stalingrad.
Certainly the Kurds don’t have the manpower to perform an encirclement yet ISIS
now experiences what all armies, sovereign nations and militants, inevitably
will face – a choice of unpalatable options. Either they continue fighting in a
meat-grinder with the odds of victory greatly diminished or suffer a
humiliating retreat after expending countless fighters and materiel in a
high-profile battle.
The German 6th Army’s defeat at Stalingrad represented the
beginning of the end for Nazi Germany. Symbolically Kobani may be the turning
point for ISIS and the beginning of their downfall. An ISIS withdrawal leaving
the Kurds firmly in control of Kobani would be a huge political win for the US
administration justifying their use of exclusive air power and training of
local fighters to defeat well-disciplined militant groups. Additionally it would
give an enormous psychological boost to the moral of several Iraqi divisions currently
training for the planned 2015 spring offensive whose objective is to cut-off
supplies to ISIS and isolate them in the cities.
