The
Russian and Iranians are pouring in military resources into Syria with their
version of “shock & awe” in a joint coalition to neutralize anti-Assad
forces which have been armed by the Americans for several years. It’s the 21st
century version of the Cold War using proxies in global hotspots. Although many
are lambasting the Obama administration for inaction in the Syrian campaign the
US has learned the bitter lessons through multiple surges, the training of the
Iraqi military and the furnishing of materiel with no positive results.
For
years Iran has had a military presence in Syria furnishing the Assad regime
with materiel and military advisors. Now it upgrades this support with combat
troops which can operate more effectively because of Russian air power. This
could establish a deeper Iranian (aka Shiite presence) in Iraq, making it
almost a de facto region of Iran. Iraq would serve as a sort of offshore
banking account because Iraq produces considerable oil (aka revenue producing) and
serves as an insurance policy in case there are sanction snapbacks.
Russia
uses their military as political cover by rescuing their long-time Syrian ally.
Interestingly the Syrian regime has been steadily shrinking and on the brink of
collapse for 4 years defended by an undermanned and dispirited military.
Through these high-profile and audacious military operations, Russia probably
intends to gain significant influence in the Middle East with respect to any
future agreements.
Overseas
military adventures are shockingly expensive and become a drain on the invading
nation’s treasury the longer these wars continue. Iran is counting on the west
to lift sanctions and unfreeze their assets so that they can affordably finance
their immediate ground support efforts. Russia, for the moment, is limiting
their participation to an air campaign with operational support staff and a
large security contingent. Yet servicing, maintaining and protecting high-end equipment
in a war environment is expensive. Neither Russia nor Iran has the deep
financial pockets to militarily assert their influence beyond the short-term.
It’s
a rarity that brief military campaigns neatly obtain their objectives.
Historically they always last far longer and become far messier than anyone
projected which drags the invading nation, politically and militarily, into a
quagmire. Eventually they arrive at the inevitable crossroads when they either
must choose between two regrettably unpalatable choices: double down or
withdraw.
In
the not too distant future, both Russia and Iran will pay a heavy political
price domestically. I’m sure that neither the Iranian nor Russian citizenry is
excited about these overseas adventures particularly when these respective
countries’ resources can be dedicated domestically in their weak economies. The
result may be anti-war protests and possibly civil unrest that will alarm their
leadership.
On
the other hand you can be sure that privately the Obama administration and
Pentagon brass are chortling about Russia’s Middle East misadventure that will
only weaken Putin. With far greater
firepower, the US failed to win the peace in Iraq in over a decade. For this
reason that is why Iran and Russia will fail miserably.
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