A
year from now the implausible could occur when history ushers in Donald Trump
as President of the United States. Last spring this very notion was viewed as something
beyond The Twilight Zone. Last summer it was only a question of when he’d run
out of steam. And by fall it was grudgingly admitted that he had the chutzpah
and money to last as long as he did because his competition was fumbling about.
It’s already February and Trump is making his political competitors, critics
and everyone else eat his campaign dust.
Something
similar was said about someone else back in January 2008. His name is Barack
Obama whose chances of obtaining merely a consideration for a nomination for VP
were pure fantasy. Mr. Obama’s road to the White House was extraordinarily
challenging. Here he was, a young person of color, the son of a Muslim man, running
for the highest office when America was still mourning over the 9/11 tragedy
and anti-Muslim sentiment was strong. Nonetheless he eventually got the
Democratic nomination and won the election utilizing new 21st
century public relations tools –social media - to directly reach a disaffected
demographic called young Americans.
Of
course his cause was helped immensely by a free-falling economy. So when
conservative voters were losing their jobs and homes, they became fed up with
the GOP leadership and blamed them for the economic debacle. It was a perfect
political storm of opportunity that enabled Obama to ascend to the highest
levels.
Now
history may repeat itself in the Mark Twain tradition of never repeating itself
but rhymes. These are uncertain and volatile times for the global economy
featuring brutal wars and terrorist attacks everywhere, Europe overrun by
desperate refugees fleeing failed states, China’s economy decelerating far faster
than so-called official statistics imply, an unprecedented level of global
debt, low commodity prices due to oversupply and shrinking demand, and Central
Banks offering negative interest rate financial instruments.
Against
this perfect storm back drop, Mr. Trump is now successfully tapping into a
disaffected demographic the way Obama did but in his own unique way. His appeal
is that he’s a brash and blunt talker, wealthy and not beholden to any
particular interest. The pixie dust of his appeal is the magic of the Trump
brand. As the world economy crumbles, people reach out to a savior who’s always
the ultimate outsider in times of peril. And because Trump presents himself as
such, he’s perfectly prepositioned to be a lock for the presidency should the
American and world economy tank between now and election day. In such times
logic is the first casualty because emotion trumps [pun intended] everything
else.
Trump
is the GOP’s version of the “Yes We Can” mantra despite the fact that Trump is
a Republican in name only, a bete noir, a maverick who follows his own rules. He’s
scorned in the Republican Party partly because they do not approve of his
methods. Notwithstanding, he has the edge over the potential Democrat opponent
Bernie Sanders because he, despite Sanders’ spot on arguments and clear intentions,
loses because he’s portrayed as a socialist. Nonetheless it will be one of the
closest presidential races ever.
If
elected, can Trump be presidential? A smart businessman and politician know how
to delegate. Whether Trump’s ego will allow him to do this on the world stage
is anyone’s guess.
Copyright Indo-Brazilian Associates LLC 2016. All rights reserved.
Indo-Brazilian Associates LLC is a NYC-based global advisory service and think tank with connections at the highest levels specializing in international investment, political and security risk assessments. International business is increasingly complex featuring a highly mobile professional class in all corners of the globe. We provide you the tools to successfully negotiate cross-culturally in your global business endeavors. Tell us about your challenges. We'll get you on the "Short List".
We provide executive coaching, speaking engagements, speechwriting and workshops. Contact us at www.indobrazilian.com
Indo-Brazilian Associates LLC is a NYC-based global advisory service and think tank with connections at the highest levels specializing in international investment, political and security risk assessments. International business is increasingly complex featuring a highly mobile professional class in all corners of the globe. We provide you the tools to successfully negotiate cross-culturally in your global business endeavors. Tell us about your challenges. We'll get you on the "Short List".
We provide executive coaching, speaking engagements, speechwriting and workshops. Contact us at www.indobrazilian.com