Monday, May 23, 2016

How Trump Can Win The White House

If history is to at least rhyme Donald Trump finds himself in a similar almost déjà vu position as President Obama in early 2008. Obama’s path to victory was assisted largely due to the rapidly metastasizing economic meltdown that affected all Americans who then took out their frustrations and profound disappointment on the GOP leadership and voted not only for an outsider, but a person of color whose father was Muslim.

In a Twilight Zone meets Groundhog Day scenario, the state of the present-day economy is what Wall Street would term ‘an elephant on chicken legs’ a so-called bull market  that has benefited exclusively the elite, an economy that is on the brink of collapse which Americans will blame on Obama and the Democrats. For this reason Americans will be compelled to vote for an outsider, such as a businessman with no political experience.

Ironically despite his sketchy track record as a real-estate mogul, Americans may hold the perception that he is a savior, that a crude-talking businessman and non-politician can resolve economic issues more readily than a politician who may not understand economics. The unmistakable beginnings of an economic recession is all Trump needs to get him over the hump. It’s now all a question of timing.

Since last year at this time the experts and other political pundits consistently under-estimated Trump’s appeal and staying power. And throughout Trump’s successful campaign, they’ve repeatedly doubled-down on their predictions of his downfall as if they were gambling at a casino – perhaps one of Trump’s - figuring the next roll of the dice will land in their favor. Now suddenly they’ve woken up to discover the cold reality that Trump is not going away.

Politically it’s impossible to counter Trump because he’s not playing by the rules and frankly, he may be making most of the stuff up as he goes along. So predicting what he’s going to do next and developing a counter-strategy is fruitless. And we’re just talking about the anti-Trump camp in the GOP so imagine how difficult it will be for the Democrats.

Trump’s advantage is that the Clinton camp may assume that they have this election in the bag because of Trump’s unsavory and often contradictory language and behavior not befitting the presidential office. But the Democrats may under-estimate the fact that Americans are tired of pomp & circumstance particularly during long periods of economic stagnation for the non-elites.  And when the economy shifts into freefall they’ll care even less about his boorish behavior.

Trump’s appeal to fulfill certain Americans’ fantasy emotional desires to “give them their America back” – even the fantasy of such an America that ceased to exist generations ago -  as if that imaginary version, which benefitted a smaller percentage of the population than it does today, was better than the Camelot of the brief Kennedy White House years. Hard times evokes nostalgia which evokes emotional choices.

Which is why, depending on economic developments, the presidential election will either be a complete blowout in favor of Hillary Clinton or one of the tightest contested races in decades that will further exacerbate political, economic, racial and ethnic tensions. And the darkest, dirtiest secret of all is that Americans, despite Hillary Clinton’s excellent experience and leadership qualifications in the so-called 21st century of social enlightenment, still have a subconsciously deep gender bias and may prefer a politically inexperienced male as head of state rather than a more than qualified woman.

For additional perspectives on Trump's stunning ascendancy including a series of published articles dating back to 2015 projecting his victory well before his GOP nomination, refer to our special website link The Men in the Trump Tower.

 Copyright Indo-Brazilian Associates LLC 2016.  All rights reserved.

Indo-Brazilian Associates LLC is a NYC-based global advisory service and think tank with connections at the highest levels specializing in international investment, political and security risk assessments. International business is increasingly complex featuring a highly mobile professional class in all corners of the globe. We provide you the tools to successfully negotiate cross-culturally in your global business endeavors. Tell us about your challenges.  We'll get you on the "Short List".

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