There’s
a tremendous irony in Trump’s infamous phone call to Taiwan’s president Tsai
Ing-wen as a diplomatic taboo. Unlike stateside, Trump reached “across party
lines” to chat with a democratically elected president vs. the communist
People’s Republic of China (PRC). In other words he would rather talk to Taiwan
rather than the Democratic Party whom he’s barely on speaking terms.
Politically
as president-elect, that fog-like gray political zone, this was a brilliant
gambit to gauge China’s reaction. During the Obama administration many
complained about the standoffish US overseas policy. Well, be careful what you
wish for because Trump is providing what Americans demanded.
As
succinctly stated by three-time ambassador including ambassador to China
(1991-1995) J. Stapleton Roy as a guest panelist on December 1, 2016 at the
U.S.-China Forum at NYU Law School, “China has a highly experienced
international corps that is totally unprepared to deal with a highly
inexperienced new US government.”
Nations
will throw a hissy-fit about his lack of charm and uncouth behavior yet Trump
speaks to them how everyone thinks in high-level diplomatic circles and
probably in private talks yet they never publicly admit it which follows the
protocol, “What happens in the palace stays in the palace”. Instead Trump rips
off the mask, the façade.
More
frightening to our allies and enemies alike is that if Americans can’t figure
out Donald Trump, can you imagine how they feel? With a new administration of political
outsiders, everyone everywhere must be wondering, as infamously repeated in the
classic movie Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid (1969), “Who are those guys?”
It’s
like being in a political cloud. When there’s no reference point it’s difficult
to move anywhere. And that’s why Putin likes him so much because in many ways
they’re kindred socio-political spirits, cut from the same cloth.
Commonalities:
1.
They
are blunt speakers, crassness and coarse language
2.
They
are more popular with working class in rural areas than among highly educated
urbanites.
3.
They
both have ultra-rich supporters. Trump has billionaires. Putin has oligarchs.
They
speak the same language means it will be easier to come to, if not an
agreement, certainly an understanding. Such a relationship may buy time to
resolve crises because they personally have much more in common personally and
politically than would a Hillary Clinton presidency. This potentially new relationship
frightens China because it offsets Russia’s move for closer political and
economic ties with China during the Obama administration.
However
in the long-run there is no such thing as a genuine brotherhood among rightwing
leaders at this level because there’s not enough room for all these egos. These
are nothing more than short-term, self-serving agreements. Each strongman
admires the other as to how they came to power and how they lead but their indelible
mindset is that you’re either for them or against them. They reward loyalty,
punish enemies and marginalize non-supporters. They depend more on someone’s word
than formal agreements which are open to interpretation anyway.
Yet
real politik is considerably
different. These are strong men with strong wills and they are loath to be
second fiddle which is why compromise without losing face will be more challenging
for them during a deep crisis, especially a potentially long-term one. Because
they are more prone to push buttons than to push talking points, this could be
a tumultuous historical period.
For
additional perspectives on Trump's stunning ascendancy including a series of
published articles dating back to 2015 projecting his victory well before his
GOP nomination, refer to our special website link The Men in the Trump Tower.
Copyright Indo-Brazilian Associates LLC 2016. All rights reserved.
Indo-Brazilian Associates LLC is a NYC-based global advisory service and think tank with connections at the highest levels specializing in international investment, political and security risk assessments. International business is increasingly complex featuring a highly mobile professional class in all corners of the globe. We provide you the tools to successfully negotiate cross-culturally in your global business endeavors. Tell us about your challenges. We'll get you on the "Short List".
We provide executive coaching, speaking engagements, speechwriting and workshops. Contact us at www.indobrazilian.com
Indo-Brazilian Associates LLC is a NYC-based global advisory service and think tank with connections at the highest levels specializing in international investment, political and security risk assessments. International business is increasingly complex featuring a highly mobile professional class in all corners of the globe. We provide you the tools to successfully negotiate cross-culturally in your global business endeavors. Tell us about your challenges. We'll get you on the "Short List".
We provide executive coaching, speaking engagements, speechwriting and workshops. Contact us at www.indobrazilian.com
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