Our monitoring of Turkey’s economic erosion began with the April 2017 referendum that put in place (barely) enormous unprecedented executive powers. Since President Erdogan’s June 2018 presidential election win and accompanying political party majority in parliament, he has pursued an unchecked aggressive economic policy that by any economic metric, will inevitably destabilize Turkey’s economy and threaten its political stability.
There are arguments in certain circles that the deteriorating Turkish economy will have a minor impact on world markets and perhaps somewhat higher impact on the emerging market. Indeed Turkey comprises a mere 0.7% weight of the MSCI Emerging Market index. However what makes this situation a potential global contagion is that it’s an ever-growing toxic economic and political stew with the elements of self-made, hyper-aggressive economic policies, high-interlinking relationships with Europe and China, and escalating battle of increased tariffs with the US against the back-drop of higher interest rates, record-breaking global debt and a strong US dollar.
Finally Turkey’s geographical position as the de facto guardian between Europe and the volatile Middle East region, unique among emerging market countries, cannot be under-estimated especially as a long-time and reliable NATO member with the 2nd largest military after the US in the organization protecting the eastern flank. It’s a membership that the Erdogan government may reconsider and utilize as a negotiating leverage with the escalating spat with the US.
Please find below the published articles that discuss these and other pertinent issues that are not covered in many major media outlets:
Published 13 August 2018
Published 6 August 2018
Published 20 June 2018
Published 14 April 2017