Tuesday, April 30, 2019

Turkey: Riding the Economic Titanic

President Erdogan continues to “stay the course” and “full speed ahead” pursuing an unorthodox post-municipal elections economic policy which has a deleterious impact on Turkey’s present-day economy.

The end of sanction waivers on Iranian oil imports exacerbates Turkey’s plummeting foreign reserves and high external debt and may possibly be catastrophic should Brent prices rise another $10/bbl.

For this reason Erdogan must create a political face-saving narrative in actively seeking international financial assistance. If not a potential economic free-fall may occur

An analysis of the the key factors: Energy, Food and Political are articulated in my article:
Turkey: Riding the Economic Titanic.

Libya: Wild Card for Higher Oil Prices

Considerable attention has been focused on the oil production free-fall and possible regime change in Venezuela and the impact on the termination of sanctions waivers of Iranian oil exports to eight countries. However these scenarios were already priced into the market beforehand.

The more insidious development is the potential for a major conflagration or even civil war in Libya, a scenario in which the US shale oil and Opec+would have a difficult challenge in filling the oil supply shortfall.

 This possibility for a major oil supply disruption is discussed in my article Libya: Wild Card for Higher Oil Prices.