The following are the before & after charts (lockdown vs
re-openings) on the hospitality industry’s position furnished by the Bureau of
Labor Statistics and provided by Statista, an online German statistical firm.
According to the following chart The
Industries Worst Affected by the Covid19 Job Crisis the hospitality industry
has hit rock bottom with an unemployment rate of 39%.
After
The following chart entitled Hospitality
Sector Leads June Job Gains shows the stark turnaround in the industry.
With respect to tourism’s global impact and which countries’ depend more heavily on the hospitality industry, the following chart entitled Who’s Most Vulnerable to Covid-19’s Impact on Tourism?, provided by the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC) and presented 14 April 2020 by Statista.
With respect to tourism role in the US economy, the article explained further, “In the United States for example, the total impact of travel and tourism was considerably smaller at 8.6 percent of GDP. Even at that lower rate, travel and tourism directly support more than 6 million jobs in the United States, with the total contribution to employment amounting to 16.8 million jobs in the U.S. according to World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC).”
TROIKA OF TROUBLE
The hospitality and tourism industry’s V-shaped economy recovery will be short-lived, barely airborne in fact, because of the following three reasons:
Covid-19 Resurgence
Firstly the most immediate is the Covid-19 resurgence whose effects are decimating the three most populous states: California (39.5 million), Texas (29.0 million) and Florida (21.5 million) for a total of 90 million. Their populations account for 27% of the total US population and are prime internal and external vacation destinations.
More importantly is the annual tourism revenue generated by these states plus Nevada. Below are the top 4 generating states in 2018 for tourism revenue all of which are suffering most severely from the Covid-19 resurgence:
State |
2018 Tourism Revenue |
Texas |
$164 billion |
California |
$141 billion |
Florida |
$112 billion |
Nevada |
$60 billion |
Total |
$477 billion |
Although tourism impacts only 8.6% of the US economy, the
resurgence in these critical hospitality & tourism behemoths will be
outsized and flatten the economic curve well before the population flattens the
Covid-19 curve.
Lockdown Part II
Secondly, the explosive resurgence itself is discouraging out-of-state visitors. Should the resurgence continue unabated then these states may institute another lockdown which would snuff out any and all economic progress and effectively ‘cancel’ the hospitality & tourism industry for the summer, its most lucrative season.
Hurricane Season
Thirdly, hurricanes are always capricious in a season lasting from June to November. The trend these past several years has been, whether caused by climate change or not, is increasingly more frequent and powerful hurricanes. For this reason, with Florida and Texas as the most vulnerable of the four states aforementioned states for hurricanes, the arrival of even a modest one could scuttle any economic recovery.
Below is an overview on the status each state with respect to their re-openings is indicated in the following chart entitled State Re-openings Stall Amid Covid-19 Resurgence provided by The New York Times 30 June 2020 and presented by Statista.